Being behind in the NCAA tournament is not easy, of course. They all made the office party, picked the wrong 12 over 5, took them to the Sweet 16, and got squashed on the deal. When the NCAA comes around, we have teams that would normally never play each other, which creates opportunities to exploit the line, or get hit by it. It’s hard to pick a certain winner among teams that don’t have a lot of experience with each other, especially if the experience came in preseason.

Based on that logic, it seems like the conference tournaments would be easy picks. These teams have seen each other throughout the season and, in many cases, have met twice. So why do we so often see teams emerging at the top of the heap in their conference tournament that might not have gotten an at-large bid without a conference tournament?

There are a few reasons for this phenomenon.

Complacency is one of them. Often times, teams will daydream through the conference tournament if their season has been successful. Sure, seeding is a big thing, but the players aren’t thinking about it. They are thinking of stepping forward to the Grand Ball and ignoring the little guy right in front of them. And, very often, they haven’t been forced to make the adjustments over the course of the season that minor teams have.

Another component of the conference tournament Cinderella phenomenon is what I like to call the “kitchen sink” phenomenon. Teams that have been on the brink all season have learned what worked and what didn’t. Their rotation has changed, excluding players who aren’t performing, and their schemes have been tampered with. And they’ll often throw their entire bag of tricks onto another piece of equipment: everything but the kitchen sink.

The NBA draft, of all things, also contributes to this. It used to be that a senior loaded team was a lock in the NCAA as well as their conference tournament. That is no longer the case. Look at Kansas in 2005 as Exhibit A. Teams that are loaded with seniors often stagnate during the season, and old emotional wounds surface as seniors battle for supremacy. The teams that advance deep in the NCAA tournament and the ones that make noise in the conference tournaments are the younger teams. The reason: Younger players have a steep learning curve and can settle in one place late in the season.

Conference tournaments, finally, are a coaches’ paradise. A marginal coach usually doesn’t win with good players, but a good coach can win with marginal players. The battle of the guys in suits is just as crucial to the game as the guys on the court.

All of that said, this time of year is the most exciting in college basketball, and perhaps the most exciting in all of sports. The players will keep their eyes on the prize, and we will have to keep our eyes on the surprises.