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House Prices and Incremental Replacement

A friend who lives in Great Falls, Virginia recently asked the question: Is there a premium for a house in the Langley High School district versus South Lakes High School? Langley High School is predominantly located in the McLean and Great Falls mailing addresses, with most of the South Lakes High School district being within the Reston boundaries. This question has at its core the basic principle of “incremental substitution” that Thomas Sowell addressed in Basic Economics. In the home selection example, what can a homeowner give up in exchange for a lower price, or conversely, a higher price is paid for a certain part of an item of housing merchandise?

To try to determine if there is a statistical difference in value between these two schools, I prepared a Multiple Listing Service Comparative Market Analysis for all single-family homes sold priced from $500,000 to $1 million from April 1, 2010 to the date (August 4, 2010). I selected the houses that the listing agent identified as belonging to the Langley High School pyramid and then those that were included in the South Lakes High School pyramid. The data obtained is below.

Langley High School: Average Sales Price $828,385; median sales price $828,762; Average Seller Subsidy: $1,537; Average sales price minus seller’s allowance: 826,848
Average Days on Market-Property: 62, Median 20; Sold 70 Detached Single Family Homes; Average age 1974; Average Lot Size.97 Acres.

South Lakes High School: Average Sales Price $656,177; median sale price $635,000; Average Seller Subsidy: $3,970; Average sales price less seller’s allowance: $652,207
Average Days on Market-Property 55, Median 22; Sold 61 Detached Single Family Homes; Average age 1984; Average lot size: .47 acres.

This data shows that there is approximately a 26.2% price premium for Langley over South Lakes. It takes a few days longer to sell in Langley’s pyramid, but that could very well have to do with the fact that it usually takes longer to sell a more expensive property, no matter where you are. Other factors that could be coming into play are that the average lot size is nearly twice as large in the Langley pyramid as it is in the South Lakes pyramid, but the average age in South Lakes is ten years younger than Langley’s. Selecting a high school that is the right place for an individual student to thrive is largely an individual decision. Langley is highly regarded, being listed as #47 in the December 9, 2009 issue of US News and World Report: America’s Best High Schools 2010: Gold Medal List. And South Lakes offers the renowned International Baccalaureate program. Fairfax County Public Schools is the 12th largest in the country and offers a variety of programs that help determine which school offers the educational environment that enriches the experience for each individual student.

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